Publications » Economic and market outlook » Economic and market outlook 2018-2019, third quarter
Economic and market outlook 2018-2019, third quarter
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The EU steel market began 2018 on a relatively strong footing, supported by the ongoing economic recovery and because of improved business conditions in steel-using sectors. However, imports continued to increase from already high levels in 2017. Over the forecast period 2018-2019 steel demand is expected to flatten as the growth of final steel use slows down to a more sustainable rate of expansion. The recent rise in protectionist trade measures is deepening uncertainty and could result in the market situation diverging from the base-case scenario.
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Brussels, 05 June 2025 – The high level of uncertainty and major disruptions caused by the new U.S. tariffs have dealt a severe blow to recovery expectations in the steel market for 2025. Against the backdrop of broader economic resilience driven by services, industry remains weak, weighing on steel demand and consumption. Recovery is not expected before 2026, and only if positive developments emerge in the global geoeconomic outlook. According to EUROFER’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook, the recession in apparent steel consumption will continue in 2025 (-0.9%) for the fourth consecutive year (-1.1% in 2024), contrary to earlier forecasts of growth (+2.2%). A similar trend is expected for steel-using sectors, with another recession in 2025 (-0.5%, after -3.7% in 2024) instead of a projected recovery (+1.6%). Steel imports remained at historically high levels (27%) throughout 2024.
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Brussels, 4 June 2025 – With U.S. blanket tariffs now raised to 50%, the only way to avoid the further erosion of the European steel market and another blow to European steelmakers is the swift implementation of the “highly effective trade measure” promised by the European Commission in its Steel and Metals Action Plan. A negotiated solution between the EU and the U.S. is also vital to preserve EU steel exports to the U.S., warns the European Steel Association.