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Economic and steel market outlook 2020-2021, fourth quarter
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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage across Europe, with all steel-using sectors being affected. Apparent steel consumption in the EU fell (-25.5%) year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, after a drop (-12%) in the first quarter. This was the most severe drop in EU steel consumption ever recorded.
The exceptionally negative trend in steel demand seen in the second quarter of 2020 is – as widely expected – the result of the economic and industrial lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Industrial activity restarted over the third quarter – when government COVID measures were largely lifted. Figures for the period will likely show a considerable rebound in GDP as well in industrial production, compared to record lows observed in the second quarter. This brief recovery may now be at risk if there is a COVID-induced ‘double-dip’ recession.
The unprecedented nature and evolution of this crisis means uncertainty and volatility surrounding possible developments in the coming months is still high. The outlook for this year and for 2021 remains very uncertain, given that COVID-measures are now being reimposed across the EU.
Total output in steel-using sectors fell (-21.3%) in the second quarter of 2020 after falling (-6.5%) in the first quarter.
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Brussels, 11 September 2025 – The lack of a solution for steel in the EU-U.S. trade negotiations, the ongoing unpredictability of the global geoeconomic situation, and persistently weak demand against an ever-growing global steel overcapacity are squeezing the European steel market. In 2025, the outlook points to stagnation, with potential recovery only in 2026 — conditional on improvements in the global economy and an easing of trade tensions. According to EUROFER’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook, another recession both in apparent steel consumption (-0.2%, revised upwards from -0.9%) and in steel-using sectors (-0.7%, revised downwards from -0.5%) is confirmed for 2025. Growth prospects are now delayed at least to 2026, with projections of a rebound for both apparent steel consumption (+3.1%) and steel-using sectors (+1.8%). However, steel imports continue to hold historically high market shares (25%) in 2025.
Third quarter 2025 report. Data up to, and including, first quarter 2025
Brussels, 10 September 2025 – Reacting to today’s State of the Union Address delivered by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Axel Eggert, Director General of the European Steel Association (EUROFER) said: