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Economic and steel market outlook 2020-2021, fourth quarter
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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage across Europe, with all steel-using sectors being affected. Apparent steel consumption in the EU fell (-25.5%) year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, after a drop (-12%) in the first quarter. This was the most severe drop in EU steel consumption ever recorded.
The exceptionally negative trend in steel demand seen in the second quarter of 2020 is – as widely expected – the result of the economic and industrial lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Industrial activity restarted over the third quarter – when government COVID measures were largely lifted. Figures for the period will likely show a considerable rebound in GDP as well in industrial production, compared to record lows observed in the second quarter. This brief recovery may now be at risk if there is a COVID-induced ‘double-dip’ recession.
The unprecedented nature and evolution of this crisis means uncertainty and volatility surrounding possible developments in the coming months is still high. The outlook for this year and for 2021 remains very uncertain, given that COVID-measures are now being reimposed across the EU.
Total output in steel-using sectors fell (-21.3%) in the second quarter of 2020 after falling (-6.5%) in the first quarter.
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Brussels, 28 July 2025 — The European steel value chain is at a critical juncture. Deindustrialization is accelerating across both steel production, distribution and processing, threatening the resilience, competitiveness, and long-term sustainability of a sector essential to Europe's strategic autonomy and industrial base.
Brussels, 29 July 2025 – The proposal for a ‘highly effective’ new trade measure to counter global overcapacity and preserve the European steel industry’s capacities, published yesterday by France on behalf of a group of 11 Member States, is a timely initiative. The non-paper sets a clear course towards a comprehensive steel trade measure to replace the current safeguard regime at a critical moment, as the negative impacts of global overcapacity on the European steel industry continue to grow, says the European Steel Association (EUROFER).
Brussels, 28 July 2025 – The deal on tariffs struck by the EU with the U.S. limits the damage in the current circumstances, but the impact on European steel remains dramatic as long as 50% tariffs are still applied. A potential joint action EU-U.S. to address global overcapacity and a possible return to a tariff-rate quota system for EU exports to the U.S., as hinted at by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, are still vague and lack the necessary details to the bring the economic certainty needed by EU steel producers, says the European Steel Association.
The European Steel Association (EUROFER)
172 Avenue de Cortenbergh
1000 Brussels
Belgium
Email: mail@eurofer.eu
Phone: +32 (0) 2 738 79 20
