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Economic and steel market outlook 2020-2021, fourth quarter
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The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage across Europe, with all steel-using sectors being affected. Apparent steel consumption in the EU fell (-25.5%) year-on-year in the second quarter of 2020, after a drop (-12%) in the first quarter. This was the most severe drop in EU steel consumption ever recorded.
The exceptionally negative trend in steel demand seen in the second quarter of 2020 is – as widely expected – the result of the economic and industrial lockdown in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Industrial activity restarted over the third quarter – when government COVID measures were largely lifted. Figures for the period will likely show a considerable rebound in GDP as well in industrial production, compared to record lows observed in the second quarter. This brief recovery may now be at risk if there is a COVID-induced ‘double-dip’ recession.
The unprecedented nature and evolution of this crisis means uncertainty and volatility surrounding possible developments in the coming months is still high. The outlook for this year and for 2021 remains very uncertain, given that COVID-measures are now being reimposed across the EU.
Total output in steel-using sectors fell (-21.3%) in the second quarter of 2020 after falling (-6.5%) in the first quarter.
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The outlook for the European steel market in 2024 continues to lose momentum amidst persisting challenging conditions. Downside factors such as worsening geopolitical tensions, coupled with growing economic uncertainty, energy prices, inflation, interest rates have further impacted demand prospects. According to EUROFER’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook, these challenges have exacerbated the negative effects on apparent steel consumption, resulting in a more severe downturn in 2023 than previously projected (-9%, instead of -6.3%) and weaker growth in 2024 (+3.2%, instead of +5.6%). Output in steel-using sectors, despite showing more resilience than expected in the past year (+1.1%), is now set to decline (-1%). Imports are once again on the rise (+11% in the last quarter of 2023), capturing a staggering 27% market share throughout 2023.
Second quarter 2024 report. Data up to, and including, fourth quarter 2023
Brussels, 22 March 2024 – The future of a strong and resilient EU can only be forged with steel made in Europe. Europe-made low-carbon steel has a strategic role as it enables a net-zero economy, but today it faces strong headwinds from high energy prices, unfair competition, global overcapacity and growing unilateral carbon costs. The year 2023 has recorded the lowest European crude steel production levels ever, with a number of idled plants and dire impact on workers. Ensuring the enabling conditions for the short-term viability and the decarbonisation of the steel sector urgently needs to be at the top of the EU agenda. This is the message delivered by the European Steel Association together with a number of high-level representatives of the sector on the occasion of the Clean Transition Dialogue on Steel in the presence of the Executive Vice Presidents of the European Commission, Maroš Šefčovič and Margrethe Vestager.