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Economic and steel market outlook 2021-2022, first quarter
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The COVID-19 pandemic slashed steel consumption forecasts and the overall economic outlook across the EU. Shutdown measures implemented by governments that began in earnest in March 2020 severely impacted manufacturing activity and steel-using industrial sectors. However, some of the measures that had the greatest impact on the economy were loosened as of June 2020, though many measures remain in effect or have been reinforced in recent months.
EU steel market overview
EU28 apparent steel consumption fell (-11.6%) year-on-year in the third quarter of 2020 (that is for the seventh consecutive quarter, after an unprecedented drop (-25%) in the second quarter) and amounted to 32.8 million tonnes.
The volume for the third quarter 2020, albeit higher than the record low seen in the second quarter, reflects the unprecedented deterioration in steel demand due to the severe disruption brought by the Covid-19 pandemic, in addition to the negative factors that had materialised in the preceding quarters and had already led to a sharp, continued reduction in steel consumption.
As a result, the downturn in steel demand led to the eighth consecutive fall year-on-year in domestic deliveries in the EU in the third quarter of 2020 (i.e. -8%, much lower than -28.1% recorded in the second quarter).
Data for the third quarter also showed the continued downturn in imports from third countries. After the severe drop (-16.8%) in the second quarter of 2020, imports from third countries dropped even more severely in the third quarter of 2020, with a year-on-year fall (-25.4%), that is the fourth consecutive quarterly drop of more than 10%.
EU steel-using sectors
The COVID-19 outbreak has further hit EU industrial sectors at a time when these had already been experiencing a severe downturn and were coping with serious challenges. Over the course of 2019, business conditions in the manufacturing industry had continued to deteriorate. This downward trend has gained speed in the second half of 2019, particularly in the automotive industry, while the construction sector has continued to outperform other major steel-using sectors.
This has resulted in a pronounced slowdown in output growth in steel-using sectors. This has culminated in unprecedented drops over the second quarter 2020, mainly as a result of the severe lockdown measures imposed by governments in March and April 2020. Total output in steel-using sectors fell (-24.4%) in the second quarter of 2020. In the third quarter of 2020, output in steel-using sectors has rebounded compared to the previous quarter – thanks to restarted industrial activity across the EU – but has nevertheless fallen year-on-year (-6.4%).
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Brussels, 25 July 2024 – Major indicators in the European steel market show a steeper-than-expected downward trend, further impacting the outlook for this year and the next. Poor demand conditions, driven by ongoing factors such as high energy prices, persistent inflation, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, are exacerbated by a manufacturing crisis affecting the largest steel-using sectors, including construction and automotive. According to EUROFER’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook, apparent steel consumption is further deteriorating. After a slump (-3.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, its rebound for the full year has been revised downwards (to +1.4% from +3.2%), as well as for 2025 (+4.1% from +5.6%). Similarly, output in steel-using sectors, after a decline in the first quarter (-1.9%), is projected to experience a deeper-than-expected recession (-1.6% from -1%). A recovery is anticipated only in 2025 (+2.3%). Steel imports continue to show historically high shares (27%).
Third quarter 2024 report. Data up to, and including, first quarter 2024
Picture Copyright: European Union, 2024 Source: EC - Audiovisual Service
Brussels, 18 July 2024 – The re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission paves the way for the continuation of the ambitious initiatives started in her first term. For a stronger and prosperous Europe, defining a pragmatic set of measures within the first 100 days of the new Commission mandate is the right step forward to ensure the success of the EU’s industry transition, if properly implemented. The European Steel Association urges that the Clean Industrial Deal be complemented as a priority by a European Steel Pact, as proposed by the German delegation to the European People’s Party (EPP).