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Economic and steel market outlook 2021-2022, fourth quarter
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The positive trend seen in apparent steel consumption as well as in steel-using sectoral output continued over the second quarter of 2021, at a considerably higher pace than in the first quarter of 2021. This was driven by the ongoing recovery in demand from the industry sector, where output bounced back after the losses experienced during the pandemic.
At the same time, this is also due to the comparison with the very low output levels seen one year earlier. The second quarter of 2020 saw widespread lockdowns and stoppages to industrial activity that were implemented across the EU as a result of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.
However, the general economic and industrial recovery in the EU appears to be increasingly uneven and exposed to downside risks, mainly the ongoing, severe disruptions in the global supply chain (i.e. shortage of components and raw materials, skyrocketing energy prices, rising shipping costs, etc.), as well as the sluggish implementation of vaccination plans in some Member States and COVID-19 variants.
Recovery in steel-using industries and in steel demand is expected to continue through 2021 but at a moderate rate and subject to considerable uncertainty at least until the first quarter of 2022, when most of the current global supply chain disruptions are expected to disappear or to ease significantly.
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A milestone occasion to quickly and effectively restore affordable electricity, to relaunch the
decarbonization and strengthen the international competitiveness of the European steel
industry.
Brussels, 02 December 2025 – Unchanged negative conditions – U.S. tariffs and trade disruptions, economic and geopolitical tensions, protracted weak demand and still high energy prices – continue to weigh on the European steel market. EUROFER’s latest Economic and Steel Market Outlook confirms for 2025 another recession in both apparent steel consumption (-0.2%, unchanged) and steel-using sectors (-0.5%, revised from -0.7%). A potential recovery is expected only in 2026 for the Steel Weighted Industrial Production index (SWIP) (+1.8%, stable) and for apparent steel consumption (+3%, slightly revised from +3.1%) – although consumption volumes would still remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Steel imports retained historically high shares (27%), while exports plummeted (-9%) in the first eight months of 2025.
Fourth quarter 2025 report. Data up to, and including, second quarter 2025